Weekly Wrap-Up of the Indian Stock Market & Trend Probability of the Coming Week.
Introduction:
This blog is all about the financial
market performance of the last week and an effort to assess the probability for
upcoming week’s performance. We analyze here respective charts of Nifty50,
Dowjones, India-Vix, etc.. We share trade idea here for the upcoming week on
the basis of our analysis and research for the education purpose. Our purpose
to write this blog on the particular subject is to expend learning and share
our outlook on the Indian Stock Markets which can help the trader and investor
community. So without wasting much of time let’s do some deep diving into the
Ocean of Wealth!
Last week overall performance:
With an expectation of making the ink of this blog in GREEN we started this week. Monday and Tuesday, both the days’ markets were looking so helpless and keep moving in a range bound direction. Though US markets have shown some strength and shown some gains both the days and as per our expectation trying hard to give us a beautiful formation of Morning-Star chart pattern. There is no doubt that Jerome Powell is Man of the Week or more specifically if say Man of the Wednesday who could have shown a ray of HOPE or FEAR to the US as well as world vide stock markets. As expected FED raised interest rates .25 basis points but due to Janet Yellen’s commentary “Janet Yellen plays down ‘blanket’ deposit guarantee” made the market sentiments toward downward movement.
For the reference you may visit the
following link on Janet Yellen’s comment https://www.ft.com/content/d6a298d1-6358-4107-a51c-644dc251dd85.
Hence, the sentiment which was looking
towards the positive or with positive biased suddenly meltdown. In the Indian
markets we ended up with bearish momentum and in the US market somehow Dowjones
managed its closing with some gains. In the Indian markets there was an another
reason also to underperform was a news broke out on Friday i.e. 24.03.23 during
the market hours that the Indian Government is increasing STT (Service
Transaction Tax) on the F&O transaction. Tough by end of the day after
markets hours there was not much of clarity and in result SGX Nifty started
showing some gains.
Let’s see what Charts says:
Nifty: In the weekly candle
stick chart the price and action says the on closing basis there was a support
on 17100 which has been decisively broken by this wee price action on the basis
of OPEN and CLOSING price both. During the week the levels tried to inch up the
gains but couldn’t hold it firmly. Hence, it is giving us a bearing signal
for the upcoming week. But for bulls we can still look for the decisive
breach of 16750 levels on the day closing. Though, this ray of hope is very
weak for the bulls as the weekly support has already decisively broken which
plays stronger signals as compare to the daily chart signals in the chart analysis.
Still we can hope that if STT news related effect can be reversed as it is
showing on the current SGX Nifty chart who knows we may pick the momentum any
time. Current expiry PCR is .69 and upcoming weekly expiries’ PCR is also
running below 1 which we can consider for the Bullish momentum.
Weekly Support at 15750, 15250
Weekly Resistance at 17100, 17650
Daily Support at 16750
Daily Resistance at 17100, 17350
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How’s Dow: Despite of interest rates related concerns Dowjones tried to maintain the bullish momentum on the weekly closing basis though it has surrendered some gains but still closed in the GREEN with position bias on the weekly closing basis. On daily charts it gave respect to its immediate support level 31940 throughout the week on day on day basis. And look at the weekly chart of the Dowjones it is slowly moving toward the compressing zone with an upward trend line support. As it will move towards the shrinking area on day by day till the extreme shrink zone you will surly see an explosive momentum toward any of the direction and probability is more on upward side as per my chart analysis skills.
Weekly Support at 30600
Weekly Resistance at 32896, 33920
Daily Support at 31940, 31700
Daily Resistance at 32600, 32700
This week trade Idea in the stock market is as follows: “Disclaimer – Consult your financial advisor before getting into the trade on below mentioned ideas. It is for the educational purpose only you need to do your own analysis on this before getting into it”
Long – Ultratech Cement
Levels: Buy at CMP | SL @ INR 7110.00 | Profit Booking @ 8050
Short – Steel Authority of India
Levels: Sell at CMP | SL @ INR 88.00 | Profit Booking @ 70.00
Conclusion:
At the end of this post I can say that I was better confident towards market recovery last week as compare to this week. I thought as per the format of this particular blog post I will be able to write it with green ink this time but it the market it always surprise you with it vulnerability and it the beauty of the financial market due to that we all gets attracted towards it.
For bears, yes market conditions are rosy at the moment but they need to be bit careful so that they may exit on time when it requires.
For bulls, yes markets are giving tough time at this point of time. But always remember just before the sunrise the night remains into its darkest phase. You need to focus on your risk management, proper hedge deployment on your strategy and patience. Bond Yields are decreasing, markets are still at the crucial support and Volatility is going down and may more factors you can see to stay positive and focused.
For Fulltime Traders, Go with the flow, as always. Stay focused on the money management, risk management and discipline.
I always advise or teach to my mentees that we always try to be on the side of Markets the day we start trying to fight against the Markets, our game trading or investing start getting spoiled and we start ensuring our exit from this battle field. It would be something like, in place of playing against the competition or the team opposite to us we would be trying to play against the Play Ground, is it possible!
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To connect with some references which are
being taken from the last blog of this series you can refer the link: https://marketshalapsychology.blogspot.com/2023/03/weekly-wrapup-indian-stock-market.html
Hindi language audience may also check my
Youtube video to refer the visual analysis of the same with the link: https://youtu.be/W7373qk3Vt0
