Weekly Wrap-Up of the Indian Stock Market

  Weekly Wrap-Up of the Indian Stock Market & Trend Probability of the Coming Week.

Introduction:

This blog is all about the financial market performance of the last week and an effort to assess the probability for upcoming week’s performance. We analyze here respective charts of Nifty50, Dowjones, India-Vix, etc.. We share trade idea here for the upcoming week on the basis of our analysis and research for the education purpose. Our purpose to write this blog on the particular subject is to expend learning and share our outlook on the Indian Stock Markets which can help the trader and investor community. So without wasting much of time let’s do some deep diving into the Ocean of Wealth!

Last week overall performance:

With an expectation of making the ink of this blog in GREEN we started this week. Monday and Tuesday, both the days’ markets were looking so helpless and keep moving in a range bound direction. Though US markets have shown some strength and shown some gains both the days and as per our expectation trying hard to give us a beautiful formation of Morning-Star chart pattern. There is no doubt that Jerome Powell is Man of the Week or more specifically if say Man of the Wednesday who could have shown a ray of HOPE or FEAR to the US as well as world vide stock markets. As expected FED raised interest rates .25 basis points but due to Janet Yellen’s commentary “Janet Yellen plays down ‘blanket’ deposit guarantee” made the market sentiments toward downward movement. 

For the reference you may visit the following link on Janet Yellen’s comment https://www.ft.com/content/d6a298d1-6358-4107-a51c-644dc251dd85.

Hence, the sentiment which was looking towards the positive or with positive biased suddenly meltdown. In the Indian markets we ended up with bearish momentum and in the US market somehow Dowjones managed its closing with some gains. In the Indian markets there was an another reason also to underperform was a news broke out on Friday i.e. 24.03.23 during the market hours that the Indian Government is increasing STT (Service Transaction Tax) on the F&O transaction. Tough by end of the day after markets hours there was not much of clarity and in result SGX Nifty started showing some gains.  

Let’s see what Charts says:

Nifty: In the weekly candle stick chart the price and action says the on closing basis there was a support on 17100 which has been decisively broken by this wee price action on the basis of OPEN and CLOSING price both. During the week the levels tried to inch up the gains but couldn’t hold it firmly. Hence, it is giving us a bearing signal for the upcoming week. But for bulls we can still look for the decisive breach of 16750 levels on the day closing. Though, this ray of hope is very weak for the bulls as the weekly support has already decisively broken which plays stronger signals as compare to the daily chart signals in the chart analysis. Still we can hope that if STT news related effect can be reversed as it is showing on the current SGX Nifty chart who knows we may pick the momentum any time. Current expiry PCR is .69 and upcoming weekly expiries’ PCR is also running below 1 which we can consider for the Bullish momentum.

Weekly Support at 15750, 15250

Weekly Resistance at 17100, 17650

Daily Support at 16750

Daily Resistance at 17100, 17350

 Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

            

            India Vix: As discussed in our last post India Vix is honoring  our  downward  trend  line  and didn’t dare to breach it throughout the week on the day on day basis.  Though  it has  shown  upward momentum on Friday due to the above mentioned reason but the trend line is still intact and BULLS need  to  pray  that it  should  not  give  close  above 16.25 so that  the  probability  of   reversing  the  momentum towards the BULLS may remain intact at any point of time.

India-Vix Daily Chart 

How’s Dow: Despite of interest rates related concerns Dowjones tried to maintain the bullish momentum on the weekly closing basis though it has surrendered some gains but still closed in the GREEN with position bias on the weekly closing basis. On daily charts it gave respect to its immediate support level 31940 throughout the week on day on day basis. And look at the weekly chart of the Dowjones it is slowly moving toward the compressing zone with an upward trend line support. As it will move towards the shrinking area on day by day till the extreme shrink zone you will surly see an explosive momentum toward any of the direction and probability is more on upward side as per my chart analysis skills.   

Weekly Support at 30600

Weekly Resistance at 32896, 33920

Daily Support at 31940, 31700

Daily Resistance at 32600, 32700

 Dowjones Daily Chart

Dowjones Weekly Chart

This week trade Idea in the stock market is as follows: “Disclaimer – Consult your financial advisor before getting into the trade on below mentioned ideas. It is for the educational purpose only you need to do your own analysis on this before getting into it”

Long – Ultratech Cement

Levels: Buy at CMP | SL @ INR 7110.00 | Profit Booking @ 8050

Short – Steel Authority of India

Levels: Sell at CMP | SL @ INR 88.00 | Profit Booking @ 70.00

Conclusion:

At the end of this post I can say that I was better confident towards market recovery last week as compare to this week. I thought as per the format of this particular blog post I will be able to write it with green ink this time but it the market it always surprise you with it vulnerability and it the beauty of the financial market due to that we all gets attracted towards it.

For bears, yes market conditions are rosy at the moment but they need to be bit careful so that they may exit on time when it requires.

For bulls, yes markets are giving tough time at this point of time. But always remember just before the sunrise the night remains into its darkest phase. You need to focus on your risk management, proper hedge deployment on your strategy and patience. Bond Yields are decreasing, markets are still at the crucial support and Volatility is going down and may more factors you can see to stay positive and focused.

For Fulltime Traders, Go with the flow, as always. Stay focused on the money management, risk management and discipline.  

I always advise or teach to my mentees that we always try to be on the side of Markets the day we start trying to fight against the Markets, our game trading or investing start getting spoiled and we start ensuring our exit from this battle field. It would be something like, in place of playing against the competition or the team opposite to us we would be trying to play against the Play Ground, is it possible!

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To connect with some references which are being taken from the last blog of this series you can refer the link: https://marketshalapsychology.blogspot.com/2023/03/weekly-wrapup-indian-stock-market.html

Hindi language audience may also check my Youtube video to refer the visual analysis of the same with the link: https://youtu.be/W7373qk3Vt0

Let's Learn Together @ Market-Shala

Weekly Wrap-Up of the Indian Stock Market

 Weekly Wrap-Up of the Indian Stock Market and Trend Probability

INTRODUCTION:

This blog will give you an insight of the market behavior of the week gets over on 17.03.23, don’t be surprise, people like us those who are into the business of stock and financial domain ends their week on every Friday. You might be wondering that why the text color is used RED! So I would say it is the specialty of this blog subject on which I will come every weekend to share my outlook on the Indian Stock Markets related to the performance happened and trend I am expecting in the next week. And try to give you a message through the text color also about the sentiments. So let’s not wait and do some deep diving in the world of market sentiments.

PERFORMANCE AND COMING WEEK PROBABILITY:

We will consider NIFTY50, DOWJONES, INDIAVIX & US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD weekly charts to see the performance of last week and its probable performance in the coming week.

NIFTY50: Nifty50 started its movement on 13.03.23 from 17421.90 as compare to the closing level at 17412.90 on 10.03.2023. As expected it was little gap down opening which extended with high volatility throughout the week. Intraday traders faced challenges a lot. Market would have shown them that who is the BOSS or might be some skilled ones would have succeeded to be survived. After opening the week continues three days the market remain bearish and short sellers would have made good money. Though, last two days of the week were a bit indecisive with positive bias. Due to indecisiveness market would have made those days hell for short term and leveraged traders with high volatility.

What daily chart of price and action predict: As you can see in the following figure of daily chart candle stick, last two days candles are showing a bit strength in the market. As per my analysis market is having strong support (day to day closing basis) on the level of 17745 which it couldn’t breach on 17.03.23 too and made two beautiful DOZIs back to back on the daily chart.

So we can expect it as the near term support from where it can start extending gains in the next week! I see the resistance at 17650 for the coming week and so on. Let’s see which way the market start moving ahead.

INDIAVIX: INDIAVIX has played an important role to ensure that market shall remain direction less but somehow it could give the close below the downward trend line on the daily chart. As you can see in the below mentioned figure that it got settled at 14.76 and any figure around 14 give a bit relief to the bulls and it bit better when you see the the BIG GIANT INDIAVIX is giving respect to your trend line. So according to this I believe that INDIAVIX is in the shape of helping us to take the markets ahead. Though I don’t have any doubt in my mind that in the coming week also it will remain active like a “Jumping Jack” and keep treating short term and leveraged traders like newbies.

HOW’S DOW: DOWJONES Index is as important for US traders and investors, seems now days it is more important for us, so we keep dreaming and praying for the good performance of this index in our sleepless nights. Joking apart but we all know US markets play a vital role in the global financial markets. So my dear friends till Thursday night in India we were celebrating DOWJONES index performance but as we wrapped up our market on Friday, DOWJONES has again made a move to give sleepless night to the worldwide investors. But no worries BULLS, I can still see a ray of hope for you in the last week price and action. As you can see a SUPPORT line which is working since 10.03.23 as support for the DOWJONES index at the level of around 31800 on day to day closing basis. It is still intact after the fall of last trading day of the week.

In the second image of weekly chart of DOWJONES you can see that it is forming a beautiful DOZI with significant VOLUME. Can you interpret the probability of next weekly candle formation? Yes, it is always a probability of Price & Action which we predict and you need to be at the side of that probability with your trading or investing position. So what I can see that it is near the support has formed a DOZI and who knows you may see a beautiful MORNING-STAR pattern in the next weekend!

CONCLUSION:

As we can see a ray of hope for the bulls, but bears are no doubt on the driving seat at this point of time. If you come in the category of traders you must be having the art of Long & Short both so it would be wise to create your strategy with flow of the market trend on day to day basis. I won’t be able to give any advice on INTRADAY TRADE strategy because I don’t see my comfort of advice on that segment. But what I can see that markets are at near support zone, so if you are short in the market stay with some hedge on your positions to stay profitable when market rebounds. You will be required to give proper attention and prepare your strategy as per the support and resistance zone. Your decision making should be on the basis of day closing price & action only. Jumping in-between the market hours may give you losses despite of market movement into your direction. And it will all happen due to extreme volatility which we saw in the last week as well. Ten Year Bond yields in the US markets are lowering down and I can see that on the daily chart it is trading at a support level from where it jumped in the last month after making a double bottom formation. If it breaks down on the daily basis decisively, who knows next market Bull Run may start from there only!

So by the time you must be having the clue that why this blog INK is RED. Who knows it might be turned GREEN in the coming week after all these all are colors and colors are always COOL.

Let's Learn Together @ Market-Shala