Weekly Wrap-Up of the Indian Stock Market and Trend Probability
INTRODUCTION:
This blog
will give you an insight of the market behavior of the week gets over on
17.03.23, don’t be surprise, people like us those who are into the business of
stock and financial domain ends their week on every Friday. You might be
wondering that why the text color is used RED!
So I would say it is the specialty of this blog subject on which I will come every
weekend to share my outlook on the Indian Stock Markets related to the
performance happened and trend I am expecting in the next week. And try to give
you a message through the text color also about the sentiments. So let’s not
wait and do some deep diving in the world of market sentiments.
PERFORMANCE AND COMING WEEK PROBABILITY:
We will
consider NIFTY50, DOWJONES, INDIAVIX & US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD weekly charts to see the
performance of last week and its probable performance in the coming week.
NIFTY50: Nifty50 started its movement on 13.03.23 from 17421.90 as compare
to the closing level at 17412.90 on 10.03.2023. As expected it was little gap
down opening which extended with high volatility throughout the week. Intraday
traders faced challenges a lot. Market would have shown them that who is the
BOSS or might be some skilled ones would have succeeded to be survived. After
opening the week continues three days the market remain bearish and short
sellers would have made good money. Though, last two days of the week were a
bit indecisive with positive bias. Due to indecisiveness market would have made
those days hell for short term and leveraged traders with high volatility.
What daily chart of price
and action predict: As you can see in the
following figure of daily chart candle stick, last two days candles are showing
a bit strength in the market. As per my analysis market is having strong
support (day to day closing basis) on the level of 17745 which it couldn’t
breach on 17.03.23 too and made two beautiful DOZIs back to back on the daily
chart.
So
we can expect it as the near term support from where it can start extending
gains in the next week! I see the resistance at 17650 for the coming week and
so on. Let’s see which way the market start moving ahead.
INDIAVIX: INDIAVIX
has played an important role to ensure that market shall remain direction less
but somehow it could give the close below the downward trend line on the daily
chart. As you can see in the below mentioned figure that it got settled at 14.76
and any figure around 14 give a bit relief to the bulls and it bit better when
you see the the BIG GIANT INDIAVIX is giving respect to your trend line. So
according to this I believe that INDIAVIX is in the shape of helping us to take
the markets ahead. Though I don’t have any doubt in my mind that in the coming
week also it will remain active like a “Jumping Jack” and keep treating short
term and leveraged traders like newbies.
HOW’S DOW: DOWJONES Index is as important for US traders and investors, seems
now days it is more important for us, so we keep dreaming and praying for the good
performance of this index in our sleepless nights. Joking apart but we all know
US markets play a vital role in the global financial markets. So my dear
friends till Thursday night in India we were celebrating DOWJONES index performance but as we wrapped up our market on
Friday, DOWJONES has again made a
move to give sleepless night to the worldwide investors. But no worries BULLS, I
can still see a ray of hope for you in the last week price and action. As you
can see a SUPPORT line which is working since 10.03.23 as support for the DOWJONES index at the level of around
31800 on day to day closing basis. It is still intact after the fall of last
trading day of the week.
In
the second image of weekly chart of DOWJONES
you can see that it is forming a beautiful DOZI
with significant VOLUME. Can you
interpret the probability of next weekly candle formation? Yes, it is always a
probability of Price & Action which we predict and you need to be at the side of that probability with your trading or
investing position. So what I can see that it is near the support has formed a DOZI and who knows you may see a beautiful MORNING-STAR pattern in the next weekend!
CONCLUSION:
As
we can see a ray of hope for the bulls, but bears are no doubt on the driving
seat at this point of time. If you come in the category of traders you must be
having the art of Long & Short both so it would be wise to create your
strategy with flow of the market trend on day to day basis. I won’t be able to
give any advice on INTRADAY TRADE strategy because I don’t see my comfort of
advice on that segment. But what I can see that markets are at near support zone, so if
you are short in the market stay with some hedge on your positions to stay profitable when market rebounds. You will be required to give proper attention
and prepare your strategy as per the support and resistance zone. Your decision
making should be on the basis of day closing price & action only. Jumping in-between the
market hours may give you losses despite of market movement into your
direction. And it will all happen due to extreme volatility which we saw in the
last week as well. Ten Year Bond yields in the US markets are lowering down and I can see that on the daily
chart it is trading at a support level from where it jumped in the last month
after making a double bottom formation. If it breaks down on the daily basis
decisively, who knows next market Bull Run may start from there only!
So by the time you must be having
the clue that why this blog INK is RED. Who knows it might be turned GREEN in
the coming week after all these all are colors and colors are always COOL.
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